Posterous theme by Cory Watilo

Trading 5/17

% of S&P100 stocks below 200ma is now 61, which usually means liquidate all long positions.

MACD has crossed negative on the SPX weekly chart.

Bond/stock ratio on the weekly has crossed above the 65ma which usually suggests bear market. Also the MACD on the weekly bond/stock ratio has crossed up which is bad.

McCellan Oscillator is at -76 and pointing lower. If it turns up, could be buy signal. McClellan Summation Index is now below 0. (-112)

384SMA on the 30min ES chart is pointing down which is bearish.

These indicators are telling me to get out of the market. I am currently holding AGNC, AGQ, CPNO (reluctantly, I'm down too much), DBL, IIM, JLS, TWO, VKQ. All except CPNO are high yield bond funds. I'm gonna find out what it's like to hold these through a bear market...

Scratch that I'm selling the CPNO turd.

Probably need to remove myself from watching the market every day.

All bottom feeding from now on will have stops at the lows. Unless I'm going to buy something in an account I don't ever look at. I also need to have a 10% stop loss without exception.

 

 

 

Von Mises on Inflation

“Inflation can be pursued only so long as the public still does not believe it will continue. Once the people generally realize that the inflation will be continued on and on and that the value of the monetary unit will decline more and more, then the fate of the money is sealed. Only the belief, that the inflation will come to a stop, maintains the value of the notes.”

Ludwig Von Mises, Austrian School

God's heart during extreme pain

I asked God, I said, "Papa, am I sick because I did something wrong?" He said "no." I said, "is Satan stronger than You, did he make me sick?" And He said "no." And then I heard Him say to me, "You are sick because there is sickness in this world. Satan's attack is to drive a wedge between you and I. To shoot arrows at your heart, to wound you further into isolation and abandonment. But Peter, I have not abandoned you, nor left you. In fact, I will use this illness to draw you and I closer." And then I said, "I apologize for not coming to you sooner." And He said, with a slight laugh, "I have come to you. And I will keep coming after you, if you will only be looking for me. And when you don't see me or feel me, I'll come anyway, to be with you. Always."

- Pete Johnson, upon hearing he had cancer

Rich Mullins on the Christian life

Jesus said whatever you do to the least of these my brothers you’ve done it to me. And this is what I’ve come to think. That if I want to identify fully with Jesus Christ, who I claim to be my savior and Lord, the best way that I can do that is to identify with the poor. This I know will go against the teachings of all the popular evangelical preachers. But they’re just wrong. They’re not bad, they’re just wrong. Christianity is not about building an absolutely secure little niche in the world where you can live with your perfect little wife and your perfect little children in a beautiful little house where you have no gays or minority groups anywhere near you. Christianity is about learning to love like Jesus loved and Jesus loved the poor and Jesus loved the broken....(concert recording cuts off at this moment, losing any further context for this particular quote)

Fantasy Season Thus Far

This has been an incredibly frustrating season to say the least.  In my money league, I drafted with a bunch of fantasy football ignoramuses. I felt pretty good about my team.  I have had the worst luck possible.  I am taking the long road to 12-4 let me tell yeah.  First game, I lost by 1 point when Legedu Naanee catches a pass at midnight on Monday night.  Had 110 yds and a td.  He's done nothing since.  Not even my perfectly-timed start of Arian Foster in the first game was enough to win that one.

Second game, I'm playing against Clinton Portis who scores 2 td's.  He's done nothing before or since.  I lost (in a tie-breaker no less) when Marques Colston caught a 30yd pass in the last minute of the game on Monday night. 

Third game, I play against Anquan Boldin who scored 3tds and over 100yds, Roy Williams with 2tds and over 100yds, and Tony Gonzalez with 1td and over 100yds.  All three of those guys has season-best/almost career-best games that day.  I lost that one pretty handily, even though I had a good day overall.

Fourth game, I had another good day and finally won a game.

Fifth game, I play against Malcolm Floyd who has a career day with over 200yds and a td.  I'm really kicking myself on this one because I decided to roll the dice and play Lance Moore against the Cardinals instead of Randy Moss vs the Jets or Brandon Lloyd vs the Ravens.  I didn't like Moss's or Lloyd's matchups, and figured Moore would do fine against the Cardinals.  Had I played Moss or Lloyd, I would have won.  Moore came up with 0 points.  It was a bad call and I knew not to play a Saints receiver.  I'm dropping him and will just play either Moss or Lloyd for the flex spot.

I have several of the same players in all my leagues this year.  In my free league, I'm undefeated and steamrolling my way into a championship.  In my buddy's league that I manage for him, he's in first place and is doing extremely well.  All leagues have enough depth that I could lose a starter to injury and still be ok.  Yet for the league that matters to me, I am in LAST place. This world is very, very unfair.